The Philippines is bracing for the potential arrival of Tropical Depression Julian, which could strengthen into a typhoon by Sunday evening. Julian is currently located 400 kilometers east-southeast of Basco, Batanes, packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 70 kph. PAGASA has raised Wind Signal No. 1 over Babuyan Islands and eastern mainland Cagayan, where 39 to 61 kph winds are expected.
Julian's Path and Potential Impact
Julian is expected to follow a loop-like track over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon in the next five days. It will be closest to mainland Cagayan on Sunday and to Batanes on Monday, where it may make landfall by Monday afternoon or evening as a typhoon. The storm could bring intense rains to northern Luzon, potentially causing flooding and landslides.
Concerns about Monsoon Enhancement and Metro Manila Impact
While Julian is not expected to induce monsoon rains similar to those enhanced by Typhoon Carina in July, PAGASA warns against complacency. The monsoon season in the Philippines runs from June to September, and Julian's position and movement are different from previous storms like Carina, Enteng, and Gener. However, the storm's intensity and potential for heavy rainfall warrant vigilance, especially in areas prone to flooding.
Increased Tropical Cyclone Activity and Forecasting Challenges
Julian is the sixth tropical cyclone monitored by PAGASA in September alone and the 10th overall for the entire year. This high number of storms, particularly in a single month, raises concerns about the potential for more destructive typhoons in the coming months. PAGASA expects two to three more storms in October, with the number declining in November and December, but warns that the cyclones' intensity may still pose a significant threat.
The frequency of these storms also highlights the challenges faced by PAGASA in providing timely and accurate forecasts. Local governments, like Marikina City, have expressed concerns about the current three-hour bulletin frequency, finding it insufficient for making decisions about class and work suspensions. PAGASA acknowledges the need for more frequent updates but emphasizes the complexity and time-consuming nature of forecasting. They are working to establish more weather stations across the country to improve data collection and forecasting accuracy.
