A recently discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has captured the attention of the European Space Agency (ESA). While the probability of an impact with Earth in December 2032 is currently estimated at a relatively low 1.2%, the potential consequences warrant discussion.
The asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, poses a significant threat due to its size and projected impact velocity (around 17.3 kilometers per second). The energy released upon impact could range from 5 to 50 megatons, potentially causing widespread devastation depending on the location.
The ESA’s Planetary Defense Office is closely monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory. While current projections suggest a high likelihood of a safe pass, the uncertainty remains until further observations are made in 2028. The office is optimistic that improved data will significantly reduce or eliminate the risk.
